Do Elections Impact the Housing Market in Kansas City?
The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Kansas City, you might be wondering what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market. It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.
Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates during those time periods, with a focus on how this might play out in Kansas City.
Home Sales
During the month of November in Presidential election years, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:
“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”
This slowdown is mostly due to people feeling uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.
In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year.
Home Prices
What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser and housing analyst, puts it succinctly:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
Home prices are quite resilient and generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows that after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year. This trend holds true for Kansas City as well, where the local housing market tends to follow national patterns.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are crucial because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them.
Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. For prospective buyers in Kansas City, this could be good news, as lower rates might mean a lower monthly payment.
What This Means for You
So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
For most buyers and sellers in Kansas City, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.
Bottom Line
While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. If you’re considering buying or selling a home in Kansas City, let’s connect. I’ll help you navigate the market, election year or not, to ensure you make the best decisions for your situation.
Author:
Chris Dowell, Dowell Family Team
ReeceNichols
About the Author:
With over 30 years of experience, Chris Dowell is a seasoned professional in the Kansas City real estate scene. As a dedicated member of the Dowell Family Team at ReeceNichols Johnson County West, Chris has been assisting Kansas Citians in buying, selling, and investing in real estate. Whether you’re looking to make a purchase, sell your property, or explore investment opportunities, Chris is here to guide you through the process.
Contact Chris:
Website: www.DowellFamilyTeam.comContact Information: https://solo.to/dowellfamilyteam
