The Presidential Election Effect: Why Home Sales Bounce Back After the Vote

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As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, many of us are wondering how it will impact the housing market. Will it be a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? Will home sales slow down or speed up? Let’s dive into the data and explore the trends.

The Temporary Slowdown

In any given year, home sales tend to slow down slightly in the fall. This is a typical seasonal trend. However, in election years, there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day. According to data from BTIG, this dip is largely due to uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out.

This year is no exception. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.

The Post-Election Bounce

But here’s the good news: these delayed sales aren’t lost forever – they’re just postponed. History shows that sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election.

So, what’s behind this post-election bounce? Once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. This leads to a boost in home sales.

What to Expect in 2025

If history is any indicator, we can expect more homes to sell next year. Based on the latest forecasts, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year. This aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.

The Bottom Line

While it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.

If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead. Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, it’s essential to stay informed and adapt to the changing market conditions.

Stay Ahead of the Curve

Want to stay up-to-date on the latest housing market trends and insights? Follow our blog for regular updates, and don’t hesitate to reach out to us with any questions or concerns. We’re here to help you navigate the ever-changing world of real estate.

Share Your Thoughts

Are you waiting until after the election to make a move in the housing market? Or are you ready to jump in now? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and let’s start a conversation!

Need help selling a home in Kansas City? Let’s talk . . .

Chris Dowell from ReeceNichols Real Estate (913) 712-9313

Author: Dowell Family Team

The Dowell Family Team: Your Trusted Real Estate Experts in Johnson County
At The Dowell Family Team with ReeceNichols Real Estate, we are dedicated to serving the residential real estate needs of Kansas Citians with a focus on Olathe, Overland Park, Gardner, Spring Hill, Leawood, Lenexa, Shawnee, and the surrounding Johnson County cities.
With over 35 years of combined experience in the local real estate market, our team blends professionalism with a personalized approach. We take the time to understand your unique needs and goals, whether you're buying, selling, or investing in property.

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